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A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows most Americans think mass shootings are a result of lapses in mental health therapy, not gun control laws.
Top pollster Gallup will not be conducting presidential horse race polls during the 2016 primary season and may also abandon them for the general election. Instead, the company will focus on polls that test voters’ opinions on key issues.
According to Politico, the shift in priorities follows Gallup’s poor 2012 polling performance in which its polls overestimated Mitt Romney’s level of support. Politico’s Steven Shepard characterized Gallup as “the country’s gold standard for horse-race election polling ever since its legendary founder, George Gallup, predicted Franklin Roosevelt’s landslide reelection in 1936,” emphasizing the historic nature of the company’s current transition, which comes as many top pollsters question the usefulness of modern presidential horse race polls for applications such as narrowing down the participants in presidential debates.
Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport said that “to date” his company has decided to abandon presidential primary horse race polling for the 2016 season and it has not yet decided whether to do them for the general election. “We believe to put our time and money and brainpower into understanding the issues and priorities is where we can most have an impact,” said Newport.
The New York Times notes that Newport told a gathering of reporters and pollsters in June of 2013 that “there is something going on in the industry, and Gallup was at the bottom of that [in 2012],” referring to the changing nature of polling as voters shift from using land lines to smartphones and web technology at varying rates across different demographics.
Though Gallup is reportedly beginning to experiment with internet and smartphone-based polling, questions remain about the effectiveness of such methods. Consequently, Newport said that for this election cycle the focus will be on “understanding where the public stands on the issues of the day, how they are reacting to the proposals put forth by the candidates, what it is they want the candidates to do, and what messages or images of the candidates are seeping into the public’s consciousness.”
Pew Research Center also appears to be shifting away from horse race polling, as the nonprofit pollster has not conducted a traditional horse race poll so far during this presidential cycle. Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew Research Center, confirmed the change and said, “We’re not going to track the horse race in the same way we have in the past.”
Rutgers professor and former American Association for Public Opinion Research president Cliff Zukin told Politico, “In this case, the problem is both cause and effect. The difficulty in doing this well has caused major players to not participate. That means there’s even less legitimacy [in presidential horse race polling] because people who know how to do this right aren’t doing it.”
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CALIFORNIA, September 18, 2015 — The first official post-debate poll from Wednesday’s GOP primary showdown at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library hosted by CNN spells bad news for Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
The One America News national post-debate poll conducted by Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, showed that Paul performed worse than any other candidate in every category.
The poll sampled a random survey of 1,337 registered Republican voters across the United States. According to Gravis Marketing, the poll was conducted “regarding the performance and opinions of the Republicans that took place in the second Republican Primary debate. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by gender.”
While 33 percent of those polled felt that former HP CEO Carly Fiorina won the debate, only 2 percent felt that Paul won. Meanwhile, 21 percent said front-runner Donald Trump won the night.
When asked who lost the debate, respondents overwhelmingly assigned Paul as the losing candidate with 32 percent believing he lost the night. With 17 percent, only Trump came relatively close when asked who lost.
The worst numbers for Paul were post-debate favorability ratings. After the debate, 58 percent of those polled had a less favorable opinion of Paul. Only 15 percent had a more favorable opinion. Trump and Paul were the only two candidates to have voters view them more negatively than positively or unchanged after the debate. However, only 36 percent of those polled viewed Trump less favorable, while 33 percent viewed him more favorably.
Of course, the One America News/Gravis Marketing results reflect just one poll, and pundits delivered praise for Paul as being “the only adult on the stage.”
On Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Paul spoke of his own performance with confidence: “I think I did very well at bringing my message out to the people who believe in a libertarian-conservative message. I think they’ll hear my message, I think our numbers will solidify.”
Who do you think won the debate? Vote in our online poll here.
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CALIFORNIA, September 18, 2015– On Wednesday, 11 Republican presidential primary candidates took their hard-earned places behind their respective podiums on stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The first post-debate poll has been released, and Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP, is now a front-runner for the Republican nomination.
A strong performance in the first debate on the under-card stage thrust Fiorina onto the main stage for Wednesday’s CNN debate. Many questioned whether or not she’d continue to impress, or if she would buckle under the pressure.
After the debate, those who underestimated Fiorina were silenced. According to Robert Herring, Sr., CEO of One America News Network, the One America News national post-debate poll conducted by Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, shows it’s all Fiorina coming out of the second debate.
Taken immediately after the debate, the Gravis poll shows Fiorina jumping to first place at 22 percent, tied with Donald Trump. OAN’s previous national poll, conducted on September 3-4, showed the former HP top executive in seventh place with 2.7 percent.
While 33 percent of those polled felt that former HP CEO Carly Fiorina won the debate, only 21 percent said front-runner Donald Trump won the night.
Fiorina also had the highest showing with GOP national voters having a 78 percent more favorable opinion of the candidate post-debate. The less favorable percent came in at 13 percent with 10 percent unchanged. Thirty-three percent of GOP voters polled believed that Fiorina won the debate, the highest of any GOP Candidate.
The poll sampled a random survey of 1,337 registered Republican voters across the U.S. regarding the performance and opinions of the Republicans that took place in the second Republican Primary debate. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3%. The polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by gender.
Although it is only the first post-debate poll, Fiornia proved to be the first Republican candidate capable of knocking Donald Trump off his perch. For now, at least.
Who do you think won the debate? Vote in our online poll HERE.
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IOWA, August 31, 2015– Retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson has been riding a post-debate wave of support that has lifted him to the top spot in the latest Iowa GOP primary poll.
According to Monmouth University’s poll released on Monday:
[quote_box_center]When Iowa Republicans are asked who they would support in their local caucus, Ben Carson (23%) and Donald Trump (23%) tie for the top spot. The next tier of candidates includes Carly Fiorina (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%), followed by Scott Walker (7%), Jeb Bush (5%), John Kasich (4%), Marco Rubio (4%), and Rand Paul (3%). The last two Iowa caucus victors, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, each garner 2% of the vote.[/quote_box_center]
“These results mark a significant shake-up in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”
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A recent poll found that 61 percent of Americans approve of the framework of President Obama’s agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program, while 34 percent oppose it, and that 65 percent of Americans do not want Congress to interfere with the agreement, while only 30 percent want Congress to block it before it is implemented.
The poll, which was conducted by Hart Research at the request of the group Americans United for Change, surveyed 806 registered voters in the United States, using both landline and cell phones, from April 6 to April 8.
The results indicated that 34 percent of the Americans surveyed oppose, and 61 percent favor the framework of the deal surrounding Iran’s nuclear program that was reached on April 2, between the US, Iran, and five other major powers: China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom. Out of the Americans who said they favored the deal, 28 percent strongly favor it, and 33 percent somewhat favor it.
The participants were asked to respond to a statement that summed up the framework of the deal, which said that over the next 10 to 25 years, it would “prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” place limits on “the level to which Iran can enrich uranium to far below what is necessary to make a nuclear weapon,” and it would significantly reduce Iran’s “uranium and plutonium production capabilities.” The deal would result in Iran submitting to “intrusive, short-notice inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency,” and in exchange, Iran would receive “gradual relief from US and international economic sanctions, as long as it complies with the terms of the agreement.”
81 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of Independents and 41 percent of Republicans favored the statement above. In contrast, 16 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of Independents and 52 percent of Republicans opposed the statement.
The survey found that according to voters, the most important parts of the deal are the provisions on inspection and verification. 69 percent of respondents favored the provision of the agreement that “allows for intrusive, short-notice inspections and monitoring of Iran’s compliance with the agreement by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and would result in expanded access to Iranian sites by international inspectors,” and 74 percent of respondents favored the provision that states that if Iran violates the agreement, “inspectors will find out, and decisive action against Iran – including strong international economic sanctions – can be taken quickly.”
65 percent of voters said that they do not want Congress to interfere with the agreement, and they would rather Congress “allow the agreement to go forward and closely monitor its implementation,” while 30 percent of voters said they wanted Congress to block the agreement now, before it is implemented.
82 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of Independents, and 47 percent of Republicans want Congress to let the deal go through, while 15 percent of Democrats, 27 percent of Independents and 48 percent of Republicans want Congress to step in and block the deal.
The results of the poll noted that voters continued to support the agreement, even after “hearing what opponents and supporters say about it,” which demonstrated an “important degree of durability and depth to the support measured in earlier questions.”
WASHINGTON D.C., October 8, 2014 – On Tuesday, President Obama identified a new scapegoat with regards to his poor approval ratings. Obama told a group of wealthy donors that the media was to blame for his dismal dip in approval ratings and implied that the mainstream media was also responsible for the unpopular public image of his tenure. Obama’s approval ratings continued to plummet in September, reaching an all time low of 38%.
Obama stated, “Frankly, the press and Washington, all it does is feed cynicism.” Obama’s criticism struck many as absurd considering what some have referred to as the media’s “kid-glove” handling of the President. So far this year, none of the big 3 media powerhouses has even mentioned Obama’s spiraling poll numbers.
This is not the first time Obama has blamed the media for his failed policies and public image. At a Labor Day event in Milwaukee earlier this year, Obama slipped another slant against the media into a speech praising the economy under his presidency, a speech that ignored the $7 trillion debt deficit added to the nation under Obama and the 10 million Americans who have given up on finding work under the President’s devastating policies.
At the Milwaukee event the President stated, “So, look, I’m saying all this just because sometimes, you know, if you’re watching TV, it’s just kind of a whole downer.” At another event this past Friday, while speaking to donors at a Democratic National Committee fundraiser in New York, Obama again disparaged the media, making a specific knock at social media stating, “The truth of the matter is, is that the world has always been messy. In part, we’re just noticing now because of social media and our capacity to see in intimate detail the hardships that people are going through.”
WASHINGTON D.C., October 6, 2014 – Many Americans no longer feel certain their government can protect their personal or economic security according to the latest Associated Press poll. According to the poll, more than half of those surveyed no longer feel Washington has the ability to effect threats such as mass shootings, climate change, racial tensions, an unstable job market, and economic uncertainty.
Of those polled, 9 out of 10 of those most likely to vote in the November 4 election labeled the economy as an extremely or very important issue.
While the poll found that Democrats were more likely than Republicans to express faith in their government, only 27% of Democrats felt confidant the government could protect them from terrorist attacks. Only 1 in 5 people polled said they were extremely or very confidant the government could prevent another terrorist attack.
The poll also found that Hispanics were more confidant in the government’s ability to cease racial tensions than blacks and whites, and that people living in urban environments were slightly more confidant in the government’s ability to provide safety from terrorist attacks than those living in suburbs or rural areas.
Events such as the rioting and protests in Ferguson, Missouri following the killing of an unarmed black 18 year old by a cop, and the beheading of a woman in Oklahoma at a food processing plant were credited with causing those polled to feel insecure in the safety of their country.
The AP-GfK poll was conducted in September of 2014 and processed online interviews with 1,845 adults selected randomly.
NEW YORK CITY, September 18, 2014 – A new poll finds that Americans have become, by-and-large, distrustful of Democrats regarding immigration issues and would rather see Republicans take the reigns in this area. The poll was administered by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, both have which historically supported amnesty.
“The new survey finds 35% of people saying the Republican Party would do a better job on immigration, vs. 27% for Democrats. That represents a big swing from December, when 31% favored Democrats and 26%, Republicans.” -The Wall Street Journal
This new poll shows a shift in public opinion following a summer marked by the border-crisis and an influx of underage, illegal immigrants into the country.
“The new survey finds 35% of people saying the Republican Party would do a better job on immigration, vs. 27% for Democrats. That represents a big swing from December, when 31% favored Democrats and 26%, Republicans,” The Wall Street Journal reported.
The poll also found that Americans are now much less likely to support legislation backed by Democrats giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. The poll found that support for a “pathway to citizenship” measure has dropped significantly from 64% in favor vs. 35% opposed in April, to 53% in favor vs. 45% opposed today.
What’s wrong with people? It seems like we’re living in alternate universes with the news reporting on the decline of tea party candidates and RINOs like Lindsey Graham soaring in the polls.
The Hill reported that, “Banks are breathing a sigh of relief after established GOP incumbents bested a handful of Tea Party challengers at the polls recently.”
Is that who we are supporting now in S.C., “establishment” Republicans and career politicians?
“Industry sources said the establishment wins improve Republican odds of retaking the Senate, which would in turn lead to a friendlier climate for the long-beleaguered sector. But some note that the Tea Party has left a mark on the Republican Party, presenting a challenging landscape for the industry,” reported The Hill.
The same old, same old candidates are why we have things like Obamacare and bank bailouts. Can we even afford to maintain this status quo? I don’t think so. Wouldn’t you agree?
And South Carolina is lucky enough to have liberty-loving, anti-Grahams, but according to a poll from Politico, people are still backing Lindsey Graham. Even after 9 Republican groups censured him for his liberal voting record.
The poll, conducted by TargetPoint for the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, shows Graham getting 56 percent of the vote. Graham faces six Republican challengers in his bid for a third term. If his challengers can hold him to half the vote, Graham will face his top opponent in a two-week runoff.
The poll shows Graham’s nearest challenger Easley businessman Richard Cash at 7 percent.
State Sen. Lee Bright, R-Spartanburg, came in third with 6 percent in the poll, followed by Charleston PR executive Nancy Mace at 5 percent, Columbia pastor Det Bowers at 4 percent, combat vet and attorney Bill Connor and Columbia attorney Benjamin Dunn each at 1 percent.
If losing more money in your paycheck through taxation, losing your choice of your doctor, and undergoing the unchecked government spying of the NSA doesn’t get you motivated, what will?
This poll is now closed. Please view results here:
Please take a moment to complete our short 2016 Presidential Poll. This poll closes on Monday March 17th.
When George Bush was president the media took every opportunity they had to nail him on his poor approval ratings. The mainstream may rarely take the time to tell you that President Obama’s Second Term Blues continue. However, what they do not do is compare President Obama to President Bush, and when they do- they lie.
This MSNBC article says that Obama’s current approval rating of 41% is the lowest it has ever been. According to a Gallup, the President has hit 38% approval rating multiple times. In fact, there are multiple polls showing the same.
In fact, MSNBC has even taken it upon themselves to “clean up” the President’s job approval, as seen in this screenshot from the news network. Obama’s actual approval rating from the poll MSNBC quotes was 41% and disapproval at 53%. You can see how the two are extremely polar.
On average, President Obama has had lower approval ratings than Bush. Take last year’s election for example. According to Gallup, on President Obama’s 1,391 (November, 2012) day in office his approval rating sat at 51%. On Bush’s 1,391 day in office (November, 2004) his approval rating sat at 55%. Both incumbents won reelection.
Three years after their first term elections (quarter 12) President Bush sat at 53% approval, while President Obama sat at 41%.
President Bush finished his first term with a 62% approval rating. His two term average was finished with a 49.5% approval rating. President Obama ended his first term with a 49% approval rating. Obviously the numbers aren’t in yet for the second term to average the two terms. However, his second term trends puts him on track to finish far worse off than President Bush did. Also, we know that historically speaking presidents finish with a lower approval rating in their second term than in their first. Obama started his first term with a 67% approval rating, which has now dipped more than 25 points to sit at 41%.
Even if his second term approval rating was to hold steady he’d finish the two terms with an average approval rating of 45%. If this number holds, President Obama would finish with a two term average lower than any post WWII president. In fact, the only president who would come close would be Nixon, and the two tie at 45%.
Anyone have some spare “change”?
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